WTI Crude Oil futures finished the day marginally higher, finishing up only +0.39 after posting a more impressive overnight rally. The main driver yesterday was the OPEC+ meeting, resulting in only +136k bpd of monthly hikes. The group was deciding on how to work on another 1.65 million bbls/day in voluntary cuts.

The majority of these 1.65mln bbls are earmarked for Saudi Arabia, who can ramp production quicker than maybe anyone in the world. Because of this, markets priced in significant downside risk towards the end of last week.

With the realization of only +136k bbls/day in hikes, the trade will likely focus on geopolitical risk and the large speculator short positioning through the rest of the week. A short covering rally seems probable.

Technical Analysis:

Market positioning has been remarkably short, and with this OPEC+ meeting out of the way, eyes are turning towards geopolitical risk and the demand side of the balance sheet.

Prices need to chew through our longer-term pivot and point of balance between 63.15-63.50*** with a settlement above the top end of that range. If that gets marked early this week, the door is open up into the 64.40*** level.

We remain friendly at these levels. If we were looking to add longs today, we’d be buyers from..

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