Hogs Pullback Consolidate Within Friday Range
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October Lean Hogs opened higher, ticked to the high of the day at 96.375 and then turned lower. It traded lower the rest of the session to the low at 95.10. It settled near the low at 95.15. The open higher was unable to penetrate resistance at the declining 50-DMA on the continuous chart now at 96.40 and then traders worked price lower, testing support at 95.30 with the low and settlement just below it. The low however was unable to test support at the rising 8-DMA, now at 94.875. The breakdown stalled above Friday’s low and the high stalled below Friday’s high forming an inside candlestick. Friday’s price action saw Hogs make a new high for the recent up move and today was traders consolidating price after the strong run higher the prior two days. The Friday high at 96.975 was just above the declining 50-DMA and just below resistance at 97.30. It had settled below the 50-DMA on Friday. The decline in production due to lower slaughter levels in my opinion is keeping the cutout price above 110.00 after seeing the cutout at the same time period last year in the 90’s. This has provided support to the futures price as the cash index hovers above 105.00 lending additional support to bullish traders. Exports remain disappointing yet the cutout is holding in good stead as consumer demand must be doing a good job in keeping prices steady. Exports are down 4% from last year’s record pace as China ‘s purchases are down around 10% due to the high tariffs the government has placed on US pork. There is hope in the pork arena that China may come back to the US for more pork as they just raised tariffs on the European Union’s pork. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test resistance at the declining 50-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 97.30. A failure from settlement could see price test support at the rising 8-DMA. Support then comes in at the rising 200-DMA now at 93.80. Support is nearby at 93.50.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 114.52 as of 09/05/2025.
The Lean Hog Index down ticked and is at 105.92 as of 09/04/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 488,000, which is above last week’s 2,000 and last year’s 484,662.
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