Hogs Maintain Neutral Pace
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October Lean Hogs opened higher, made the high at 91.975 and then broke down to the low at 90.925. It drifted the rest of the session and settled in the middle of the range at 91.40. Hogs continued its drift around the 90.40 key level, with last week below and then moving above it on Friday and on Monday just idling as we wait for more clarity in the Hogs. It has been in a trading range since becoming the lead contract with the high at 93.275 and the low at 87.925. Exports are doing okay for the Hog market, just below last year’s excellent pace and slaughter levels have come in shy of expectations as disease has kept numbers lower than expected. Weights are now even with last year keeping production somewhat tighter than expected and the cattle markets continue to shine brightly as supplies are down and demand for beef remains strong. This has helped support hog prices but we have not been able to break to higher levels with all this potentially positive actions. Retail prices have risen and consumer demand is fairly good and we still can’t move price out of its trading range. The seasonal trend is to continue to expect higher slaughter and production but the seasonals haven’t worked so far. Still, price hasn’t been able to move higher. It goes lower, hits the wall, bounces and then goes higher , hits the wall and moves back towards the lows. I believe this reflects what has occurred it the cash market, where we have seen strength and weakness in both cutout and cash prices. The indices have moved between 110 and 119ish for the cutout index and 105 to 112ish for the cash index this summer. Up and down and unable to break free so far in either direction. I think the strength in cattle is supporting hogs but with beef demand swamping pork demand it will take ever higher beef prices to finally pork to the forefront. Cash prices are lagging behind beef prices, unable to break out like beef has, as the packer slowdown in slaughter has taken beef to new heights. Pork needs a spark. We’ll see!... If price can take out the Friday high, we could see price re-test resistance 92.375. Resistance is nearby at the rising 200-DMA now at 93.20. A failure from the Monday low could see price revisit support at 90.40. Support then comes in at the 88.325.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 113.43 as of 08/22/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 107.84 as of 08/21/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 455,000, which is below last week’s 481,000 and last year’s 475,636.
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Ben DiCostanzo
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