Valued at a market cap of $19.2 billion, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is a specialty beauty retailer that offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools. The Bolingbrook, Illinois-based company is expected to announce its fiscal Q4 earnings results on Thursday, Mar. 13. 

Ahead of this event, analysts project the beauty salon company to report a profit of $7.09 per share, down nearly 12.3% from $8.08 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company has exceeded Wall Street's earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion. In Q3, Ulta Beauty’s EPS of $5.14 outpaced the forecasted figure by a notable margin of 15%. 

For fiscal 2024, analysts expect ULTA to report an EPS of $23.96, down almost 8% from a profit of $26.03 per share in fiscal 2023. 

Shares of ULTA have declined 16.3% over the past 52 weeks, significantly lagging behind both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 24.1% rise and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLY) 34.9% return over the same time frame.

Increasing industry rivalry, as well as consumers cutting back on non-essential spending amid economic uncertainty, have contributed to ULTA's underperformance over the past year. Nonetheless, shares of ULTA surged 9% on the day following its Q3 earnings release. The company delivered a better-than-expected Q3 profit of $5.14 per share and revenue of $2.5 billion on Dec. 5. The bottom line grew 1.4% from the year-ago quarter, while the top line improved 1.7% annually. 

The top and bottom-line uptick was primarily driven by contributions from new stores. Moreover, noting its above-par performance, the company raised its full-year 2024 EPS guidance to $23.20-$23.75, further bolstering investor confidence. It expects fiscal 2024 net sales between $11.1-$11.2 billion and comparable sales to remain flat to down 1% year over year.

Wall Street analysts are moderately optimistic about Ulta Beauty’s stock, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Among 28 analysts covering the stock, 12 recommend "Strong Buy," two suggest “Moderate Buy,” 13 recommend “Hold,” and one indicates a “Strong Sell” rating. This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, with 13 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.” 

The average price target for ULTA is $465.92, which indicates a modest 12.7% potential upside from the current levels.