Top Farmer Midday Update 8-14-19

CORN: Corn futures are mixed in very choppy trade this morning, with Sep steady at 3.66, Dec steady at 3.76-1/2, and Mar down 1/4 cent to 3.89-3/4. Yesterday's price action filled gaps near the May lows and the lack of follow-through buying has been somewhat disappointing. The current demand environment is making it difficult to attract new buyers, and with heavy long liquidation this week, selling pressure is evident. Corn margin requirements increased this morning by 15%, putting additional money management pressure on those still holding long positions. Dec corn traded as high this morning as 3.81 but has since drifted back near the lows made yesterday. Prices are overbought according to Stochastics and Bollinger Bands, but there is no buy signal yet. Speculative funds sold about 27,000 contracts of corn yesterday.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are drifting lower today, with Aug down 2-1/2 cents to 8.69-1/2, Sep beans are down 5-1/2 cents to 8.70-3/4, and Nov beans are down 5 cents to 8.84. Some support was seen overnight on news that the U.S. would delay the 10% tariffs on some Chinese products until mid-December. High level Chinese and American officials also spoke on the phone earlier this week and some are feeling that the two sides may be softening their positions. Still, weather forecasts look non-threatening if not beneficial, making it difficult for the bulls to sustain much momentum at these levels. Nov soybean traded as high this morning as 8.93-1/2, making another test of their 20-day moving average resistance level. However, sellers have pushed bean futures back below that level and prices are holding between their 10 and 20-day moving average levels. Speculative funds were thought to have bought about 7,000 contracts of beans yesterday.

WHEAT: Wheat markets are higher today, with Sep Chi wheat up 5 cents to 4.77, Sep KC wheat is up 4-1/2 to 3.88, and Sep spring wheat is up 3-1/4 cents to 5.06-1/2. Monday's Supply and Demand report was positive for the soft red winter wheat, and given the recent selloff in hard red wheat, it is finding use in feed in the southwestern feed lots. This also ties the hard red winter wheat close to the corn market which is finding some stabilization today. Still, global wheat prices continue to slip, and the market is in a supply-heavy environment. Chi wheat markets put in a hook reversal yesterday while the other wheat markets continued to slip. Speculative funds were thought to be about net even in Chi wheat yesterday.

CATTLE: Cattle markets are mixed this morning, with Aug lives down 27 cents to 100.27, Oct lives are down 22 cents to 99.02, and Dec lives are up 1.05 to 105.00. Aug feeders are up 6.75 to 134.47 and Sep feeders are up 5.50 to 132.70. Cattle markets remain extremely volatile due to the fire last week at the Tyson plant. The effects of the plant shutdown are still unknown. On one hand, the demand for cash cattle in the country will be lowered by the shorter slaughter capacity. On the other hand, beef supplies may also shrink and keep packer margins supported. Slaughter this week is running about 6,000 head behind last week's pace, which means that about half of the lost capacity is being met by other plants. Traders are still worried about the possibility of a massive backup of market-ready cattle and increasing weights down the road. Oct lives briefly tested yesterday's highs but quickly fell back lower on the day. Sep feeders are trading very sharply higher though are still inside of yesterday's range.

HOGS: Hog markets are higher this morning, with Aug up 22 cents to 79.22, Oct hogs are up 1.95 to 66.52, and Dec hogs are up 1.30 to 64.32. China's National Spot Pig Price continues to rally incredibly quickly. China pig prices are up over 17% for this month alone. Domestic cash fundamentals are a bit more mixed, with the index drifting lower and carcass cutout values mixed to mostly higher lately. Oct hogs are trading just above their 10-day moving average resistance level. Oct hogs have tested and failed to break through this for the previous three sessions, so a close above would be supportive. Dec hogs are also trading above their 10-day moving average and a close above could spark new buying.




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