Top Farmer Midday Update 7-30-19

CORN: Corn futures are trading moderately lower today with Sep down 4-1/4 cents to 4.12-3/4, Dec is down 4-1/2 to 4.22-1/2, and Mar corn is down 4-1/4 cents to 4.32-1/2. Crop conditions increased for the week ending July 28. 58% of the U.S. corn crop is rated good to excellent vs 57% last week and 72% last year. Corn silking is seen at 58% vs 83% on average and corn in the dough stage is at 13% vs 23% on average. Longer term weather maps are cooler than normal with rain chances and coverage spotty. The U.S. dollar is higher again today, keeping U.S. corn expensive on world markets. Cash premiums have begun to soften just a bit across the country which indicates that farmers have been moving old crop corn. Dec futures traded as low as 4.21-1/4 this morning, their lowest price since July 2. The gap at 4.20 from late May has yet to be filled. Stochastics are giving oversold ratings, though the market cannot seem to drum up any new buyer interest. Funds bought about 9,000 contracts of corn during yesterday's session.

SOYBEANS: Soybeans are lower today, though are well off the session lows so far. Aug beans are down 6-1/4 cents to 8.97-1/2, Sep beans are down 6-1/2 cents to 8.85, and Nov beans are down 6-3/4 cents to 8.97-1/2. Soybean crop conditions were unchanged on yesterday afternoon's report, remaining at 54% good to excellent vs 70% good to excellent for this same week last year. Just 21% of the soybeans are said to be setting pods vs 45% on average, and only 57% of soybeans are blooming vs 79% on average. A cooler forecast going forward should be beneficial for the soybean crop, though rain coverage appears to be spotty. News headlines regarding U.S. and China trade negotiations have been relatively quiet and there have not been any flash export sales announcements lately. Nov beans traded as low this morning as 8.99-1/2, but have rallied nearly a dime off of those lows. Today's lows were the lowest Nov soybeans have traded since June 12. Funds were thought to have bought about 5,000 contracts of beans yesterday.

WHEAT: Wheat markets are following the rest of the grain complex lower this morning with Sep Chi wheat down 5-1/2 to 4.98, Sep KC wheat is down 4-1/2 to 4.32, and Sep spring wheat is down 2-3/4 cents to 5.29-3/4. The pressure is disappointing today considering the bullish outside sessions made in the winter wheat markets yesterday. Winter wheat harvest was said to be 75% complete for the week ending July 28 vs 86% complete on average. Spring wheat conditions dropped this week, seen at 73% good to excellent vs 76% last week, and 78% this same week last year. Chi contracts have been trapped between their 10 and 20-day moving average levels so far this session, and the KC contract put in an unsuccessful test of its 10-day moving average resistance level. Spring wheat futures made an impressive close yesterday above their 20-day moving average level for the first time since June 17 and are so far holding that support level today. Funds were thought to have bought about 5,000 contracts of Chi wheat yesterday.

CATTLE: Cattle markets are lower this morning in further technical correction. Aug lives are down 67 cents to 107.97, Oct lives are down 85 cents to 108.60, and Dec lives are down 70 cents to 113.15. Aug feeders are down 22 cents to 142.07, and Sep feeders are down 17 cents to 142.65. Cash trade last week was very light though positive, and beef values have been unable to find the strength that many have been calling for lately. Stochastics are just now returning from overbought levels and the weakness in the hog markets is also a limiting factor today. Oct lives have fallen below their 10 and 20-day moving average support levels and Sep feeders put in a brief test of their 10-day moving average support level today.

HOGS: Hog markets are sharply lower today in further correction with Aug contract down 1.45 to 82.95, Oct hogs are down 2.45 to 74.00, and Dec hogs are down 2.15 to 73.70. Despite a sharp rally lately in the cash hog market, Aug futures are still at a relatively wide premium. This leaves them vulnerable going into expiration. Pork values have stumbled as well, and with China appearing to dig in their heels when it comes to U.S. trade negotiations, the hopes for large purchases of U.S. products seems to change on a daily basis. The Oct contract has fallen below its 20 and 200-day moving average support levels and is trading at its lowest level today since July 15.




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