Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher this morning after USDA confirmed slow US planting progress and weather forecasts continue to suggest more of the same. They saw 2 to 6 1/2 cents gains on Monday, posting multi-month highs in several contracts. Preliminary open interest jumped 49,782 as new buyers crowded in to play the weather rally. In the weekly Crop Progress report, NASS showed corn planting at 49% complete nationwide by Sunday, on the lower side of estimates and the slowest for week 20 since NASS started recording. That was well below the 80% average, with last year at 78% for this week. The crop was 19% emerged, with the 5-year average at 49%. All corn export shipments in the week of May 16 totaled just 820,916 MT. That was down 28% from last week and 47% below the same week last year. Exports YTD are now 3.09% larger than a year ago, at 37.454 MMT (1.474 bbu). --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 6 to 9 cents higher this morning. They ended the Monday session with the front months 10 to 10 1/2 cents higher. Preliminary open interest rose a modest 4,413 contracts on Monday. Support came from the grain complex and specs taking profits after Friday’s sell off. July soy meal was up $3/ton, with soybean oil 28 points higher. After Monday’s close, the Crop Progress report indicated that just 19% of the soybean crop was planted on May 19, below most expectations. The 5-year average for week 20 is 47%, as last year was 53%. NASS also reported that 5% of the crop was emerged, compared to the normal pace at 17%. Monday’s Export Inspections report from USDA shows soybean shipments of 497,070 MT in the week that ended on May 16. That was a slight drop from the previous week and 45.21% below the same week last year. A total of 205,944 MT was shipped to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents higher this morning after closing Monday with 9 to 16 cent gains in the front months on Monday. KC HRW is the bull leader. There was some short covering in Chicago on Monday, with preliminary OI down 4,222 contracts. The Southern Plains continue to see abnormal moisture for this time of year, causing some disease concerns in the HRW crop. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the winter wheat crop 54% headed, lagging normal by 12%. Texas is 8% harvested, matching the average pace. Condition ratings saw a 2% boost to 66% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index up another 3 to 372 points. Spring wheat planting was in line with estimates at 70% complete, vs. the 80% average and 76% last year. Emergence at 26% still lags the 5-year average pace by 25%. Export Inspections for wheat during the week of May 16 totaled 757,704 MT. That was a 13.74% drop from the previous week but more than double the same week last year. YTD shipments are now 2.28% larger yr/yr at 23.58 MMT (866.4 mbu).

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were mostly lower to start the week, with nearby June up a few ticks. Feeder cattle futures were down 32.5 to 82.5 cents, on weakness in live cattle and strength in corn. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents to $132.76 on May 16. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.14 at $221.45 with Select boxes 25 cents lower @ $208.03. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head. That was down 1,000 head from last Monday and 1,000 above the same Monday last year. Monday cash market activity was mostly compiling showlists for later in the week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures settled Monday mixed, with nearby June down 62.5 cents and deferred contracts steady to 75 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 38 cents from the previous day @ $84.59 on May 16. The weekly update to the Fresh Bacon Index shows a price of $168.17/cwt, up $12.78 from the week prior. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.26 at $86.53 on Monday afternoon. The national average base hog was 23 cents lower on Monday, at an average weighted price of $80.92. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 472,000 head for Monday. That was 12,000 head above the previous week and 14,000 above the same day last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are currently 18 to 46 points lower with some traders attempting a Turnaround Tuesday fade. They saw 119 to 192 point gains in most contracts on Monday. Rain in parts of northern TX and other parts of the Cotton Belt may slow cotton planting this week. The Crop Progress report indicated that 44% of the US cotton crop was seeded as of Sunday, 1% behind the average pace and 6% behind a year ago. The Cotlook A index for May 17 was up 50 points from the previous day to 77.35 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.59 cents/lb, down 5.06 cents from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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